As long ago as the fourth century B.C., scientists have argued in favor of simplicity. Perhaps the most familiar expression of the importance of simplicity for science is the 14th century formulation known as Occam’s razor, a line of reasoning that holds that the simplest answer is often correct. The preference for simplicity in science…
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Michael Mauboussin: When does intuition work or fail? Daniel Kahneman: Intuition works less often than we think. There is no such thing as professional “expertise.” The Intuitions in chess masters develop with “big data” comes from experience. For people, the immediacy of feedback is especially important to learn the basis of expertise. When feedback comes…
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They say that travel broadens the mind and for the most part I agree with this sentiment but for a simple caveat. It only does so for those who are sufficiently self aware to remove themselves from the strictures of their own culture and the emotional and psychological baggage that it entails. If you remain…
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On October 16, 1846, at Massachusetts General Hospital, Morton administered his gas through an inhaler in the mouth of a young man undergoing the excision of a tumor in his jaw. The patient only muttered to himself in a semi-conscious state during the procedure. The following day, the gas left a woman, undergoing surgery to…
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This is an old piece – the author Linds Redding died in 2012 aged 52 from oesophageal cancer. This is one of his last pieces and it is a rant directed at the advertising industry but it can apply to any industry. And here’s the thing. It turns out I didn’t actually like my old…
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What do burglars, Stanford’s football team, and Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen have in common? They all use simple rules to help them navigate complex challenges, according to a new book by Stanford professor Kathleen Eisenhardt. Many burglars follow just one rule that significantly lowers their risk of getting caught — they pass on houses where…
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These are some random thoughts I have been putting together following the events of last week. 1. Markets move from manic to panic within a few sessions. Those who still cling to the outdated notion that humans are rational assume that when markets transition they do so in an orderly fashion. The thinking is that…
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As I watch my position in lean hogs gyrate in the wind I was reminded of these episode of the King of Queens. If you are not having a long breakfast skip to 15:20 for the most relevant piece and avoid the last few minutes since it is the usual childish American ending.
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Betting against the market is not worth the expense, either. To take a short position, traders sell borrowed stock in a company they think is overvalued with the hope of buying it back at a lower price. If the stock price goes up instead, short-sellers have to buy more stock in order to “cover” the…
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