The chart below is currently doing the rounds. It is from JP Morgans Guide to Retirement and it is being repeated without critical comment over various sites. It offers the standard line of the need to be fully invested in markets all the time because if you are not fully invested then you miss the best…
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In 1999, in the Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, my then graduate student Justin Kruger and I published a paper that documented how, in many areas of life, incompetent people do not recognize—scratch that, cannot recognize—just how incompetent they are, a phenomenon that has come to be known as the Dunning-Kruger effect. Logic itself almost demands…
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I have only seen the abstract of this article so far. However, the abstract as usual does give away the plot since it states – We provide direct evidence on the effect of financial expertise on investment outcomes by analyzing private portfolios of mutual fund managers. We find no evidence that financial experts make better investment decisions…
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So you want to be a fund manager, sit on a pile of money, move it from here to there and from there to here. Wear a suit everyday to work, a silk tie and maybe have one of those heavy Swiss watches on your wrist. Sounds nice, right? Well I have good news for you.…
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I gave a little it talk last night on complexity within markets and the question arose in the chat afterwards as to how do you know when a trader/advisor/etc is starting to panic about the market. I have a short quick and very complete answer which is based upon my own observation over the past…
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One of the best ways to find out what an industry thinks of both itself and its clients is to look at how the industry communicates to itself. I came across this piece by Hedge Co an online news source for hedge funds. the title of the piece – How to Get Rich By Starting…
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In “Seven Bad Ideas: How Mainstream Economists Have Damaged America and the World,” Jeff Madrick — a contributing editor at Harper’s Magazine and a frequent writer on matters economic — argues that the professional failures since 2008 didn’t come out of the blue but were rooted in decades of intellectual malfeasance. As a practicing and,…
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According to The Age – Investors are using Australia’s stock market to bet that the iron ore rout has further to run. Two of the five most-shorted companies in the nation’s benchmark equity index are producers of the commodity, while bearish bets on Atlas Iron hit a record this month, market data shows. Short sellers…
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