If you look up small, rooted backwaters whose politicians think we are more important than we are in the dictionary, you will find Australia. If you look up a global behemoth with 4000 years of history, you will discover China. I really don’t think people, particularly right-wing politicians, understand the significance of the changes that…
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Economists love to tell each other stories about perverse incentives. The “cobra effect” is a favourite. It describes an attempt by the British Raj to rid Delhi of its cobras by paying a bounty for each cobra skin, thus encouraging a thriving cobra-farming industry. The cobra story is probably an urban myth — or a…
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Two of the greatest economists who ever lived, Irving Fisher and John Maynard Keynes, thought they could predict the future and make a killing on the stock market. Both of them failed to see the Wall Street crash, the greatest market disaster of the age – and arguably, of any age. Yet having made the…
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The sword was suspended in the basement rafters with a message from 1945 still secured to its fittings. My grandfather and I were sitting one floor above it at his kitchen table when an email arrived. It was 9:17 A.M. on Christmas Day in 2021, the Chicago weather too mild, the ground too much of…
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Traders for decades have tried to use Fibonacci numbers to predict where markets will go. Sadly like most things to do with trading, they are completely unaware of their history.
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Often an idea that sounds very attractive gains traction without supporting data backing it up. This is true of trading/investing and many other things. This podcast is effectively a lesson in critical thinking and how not to assume that just because something sounds like a good idea doesn’t mean it is a good idea.
This chart has been doing the rounds of social media lately. It demonstrates five things. You can have an immensely successful social media career and still not understand the basics of topics you comment on. The same is true for journalists who have been reposting it without comment. The chart is of zero relevance to…
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It would appear they are very stupid – but then that’s probably not a surprise to anyone. The always entertaining Dr Sabine Hossenfelder points out why. Her channel is well worth subscribing to if for the sole purpose of enjoying her blisteringly sharp intellect mixed with her uniquely German sense of humour.
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Over the last turbulent century, the global economy has suffered the shockwaves of recessions and depressions, bubbles and unchecked investor euphoria. And with the UK’s spring budget announced this week, we ask the question – have we learnt from the economic mistakes of the past?
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