The Medallion Fund, managed by Renaissance Technologies, is one of the most successful and mysterious hedge funds in the world. Founded in 1988 by mathematician Jim Simons, the Medallion Fund has produced impressive returns for its investors and has become synonymous with the idea of using mathematical models and algorithms to trade in financial markets. Despite its…
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Here is a quick quiz. Hands up if you thought that during the previous calendar year, the chart below was a buy. If you answered yes then there is something wrong with you but you can take comfort in the fact that you are not alone. Among the 234 thematic ETFs on offer ARKK took…
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Trading is often presented as this enormously complex activity that requires great quantitative skills – this is not true. However, you do have to develop an intuitive feel for what some numbers mean. You will need to understand how to position size correctly, where to place your stop, and how to calculate your returns. But…
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Traders quoting annualised returns need I say more. Well, I probably should, one of the things that is most annoying to me is traders who will take a return from a given stock let’s say over a month, and then annualise that return to predict what they’re going to make in the coming year. Intriguingly…
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One of the things that has always amazed me about financial markets is the apparent lack of numeracy I see in many of its participants. As an example consider the table below which looks at gains made in the subsequent years by the S&P500 when it has been down 25% or worse in a given…
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The other day I had a bit of a dig at a fund manager who was proclaimed a superstar for generating an average return of 9%pa for 15 years. I pointed out that the long term rate of return for the All Ords Total Return Index was 13.2%pa so our superstar was well off the…
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One of the most vexing issues for novice traders is the notion that you will not be right most of the time – in real trading, you will be wrong an awful lot. This notion of being consistently wrong but also successful seems like a paradox that many cannot resolve. It runs counter to all…
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This week, the real estate mogul and billionaire Sam Zell said, “There is a high probability that we are looking at a recession in the next 12 months.” The culprit, he told “Bloomberg Go,” was the strong dollar and slowing global trade, the beginnings of layoffs at multinational companies and a general lack of demand. The bears of…
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As everyone should know I am a great believer in luck playing an invisible hand in the success that many people enjoy. And there does come a time when you can spot luck deserting someone as the need for skill becomes apparent. The hedge fund Tiger Global has lost 66% of all investor gains accumulated…
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