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Bias Series Part Five – The Dunning-Kruger Effect

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This is a curious little malady that makes you believe that you are much better at a task than you actually are but you lack the either cognitive power or self perception to realise how bad you are.

Consider of the HRF Hedge Fund Index versus the S&P500.

Screen Shot 2014-01-15 at 6.35.49 amAs you can see a simple index fund would outperform the majority of hedge funds in the world. Despite this glaring lack of ability there are literally tens of thousands of hedge fund managers who fail to see that they are rubbish. They go on collecting and losing clients money whilst making themselves wealthy. In average investors it has been shown that the the level of self perception among the worst performers is effectively zero. There is no reason to assume that this does not apply to investors of all sizes.

 

Category: Trading PsychologyBy Chris TateJanuary 15, 20142 Comments

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2 Comments

  1. Graeme says:
    January 16, 2014 at 3:08 am

    Master Tate……if you are indeed an incarnation of John the Baptizer for investors……..how will investors recognize their Messiah in this environment of extremely poor self-perception?
    Your student shares the current heat wave we are experiencing in Melbourne (an excuse for the hallucinatory statement above), and hopes the Master has himself found avenues of relief and perhaps has something appropriate to share and celebrate on ‘Its Friday’ when these conditions are expected to end.

  2. Barry Kirkwood says:
    January 18, 2014 at 3:24 am

    Thanks for Dunning-Kruger.
    I know it as the first quadrant of the Competence – Awareness circle.
    For those who do not know:
    Quadrant I : Incompetent and unaware, hence no errors detected, no learning possible.
    Quadrant II: Incompetent and aware. lacks skill, makes errors but aware, hence improvement possible.
    Quadrant III: Competent and aware. Has achieved skill, corrects errors as and when they occur.
    Quadrant IV: Competent and unaware. A virtuoso, or a “natural”. Appears effortless. Also the case for well learned routines by ordinary folk.
    While simple, reflecting on the above can lead to insights: e.g why virtuosos are often poor teachers, as they are not consciously aware of how they do it. Note also concepts of “flow”, “being in the zone” consistent with Quadrant IV.
    cheers
    Barry

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