Skip to content
Trading Game
Trading Game
Trade Confidently and Safely
  • Home
  • About
    • About Louise Bedford
    • About Chris Tate
    • Chris Tate Media Kit
    • Louise Bedford Media Kit
  • Podcast
    • Why Choose Us
    • Audited Results
  • Mentor Program
  • Rave Reviews
    • More Rave Reviews
    • Even More Rave Reviews
    • Extra Rave Reviews
    • Still More Rave Reviews
    • This Is Getting Ridiculous
    • Success Stories
    • More Success Stories
    • We Are Traders
    • A Poem To Inspire You…
    • Hot Off The Press Reviews
    • You Want Proof?
  • Our Network
    • Our Brokers
  • Shop
  • Blog
  • Contact
  • LOGIN
  • Home
  • About
    • About Louise Bedford
    • About Chris Tate
    • Chris Tate Media Kit
    • Louise Bedford Media Kit
  • Podcast
    • Why Choose Us
    • Audited Results
  • Mentor Program
  • Rave Reviews
    • More Rave Reviews
    • Even More Rave Reviews
    • Extra Rave Reviews
    • Still More Rave Reviews
    • This Is Getting Ridiculous
    • Success Stories
    • More Success Stories
    • We Are Traders
    • A Poem To Inspire You…
    • Hot Off The Press Reviews
    • You Want Proof?
  • Our Network
    • Our Brokers
  • Shop
  • Blog
  • Contact
  • LOGIN

You better watch out, You better not cry

You are here:
  1. Home
  2. Blog
  3. Australian Markets
  4. You better watch out, You…

There has been much talk on the Googlebox about us being saved by a Christmas rally and I thought what  an ideal topic for a chart. So I went and had a look at the average December gain for a variety of markets over the past 20 years and the results are below.

Screen Shot 2015-11-30 at 11.07.30 AMAs you can see the average December gain for our market is hardly anything to write home about. If interpreted literally (a dangerous thing to do with averages) it would mean that the All Ords would gain about 89 points from where it currently sits. However, averages are problematic and the December move could be anywhere between a loss of 2.6% to a gain of 6.1%. When looking at any set of numbers it is the dispersion of those numbers which conveys more information than simply using the average. Variance is important but often overlooked. So the statement “on average we have a rally in December” doesn’t really tell us much, whereas looking at the possible range of outcomes tells us a lot more about what might happen.

However, it is important to note that none of these numbers convey anything other than a bit of statistical mangling on my behalf. These numbers become a problem when they become part of peoples narratives and therefore part of their expectation. Expectation for traders is a problem because it involves a sense of ownership as to the outcome and it is ownership of  what is thought to be the right outcome.  As opposed to an understand as to all possible outcomes and what action might flow from the trader when one of those possible outcomes eventuates.

 

Categories: Australian Markets, Economy, Get Your Shit Together, International MarketsBy Chris TateNovember 30, 20151 Comment

Post navigation

PreviousPrevious post:Its Not Just Students…NextNext post:The coffee-machine bacteriome

Related Posts

Ten Minutes With Tate Where Do Returns Come From?
June 22, 2022
Why We Need Financial Literacy In School 2
June 18, 2022
Why We Need Financial Literacy In School
June 17, 2022
Clarke and Dawe – The Energy Market Explained
June 17, 2022

1 Comment

  1. Nigel Hop says:
    December 2, 2015 at 11:58 am

    Thanks Chris.
    Sage advice.

Comments are closed.

Trading Game
BACK TO TOP



General Advice Warning

The Trading Game Pty Ltd (ACN: 099 576 253) is an AFSL holder (Licence no: 468163). This information is correct at the time of publishing and may not be reproduced without formal permission. It is of a general nature and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on any of the information you should consider its appropriateness, having regard to your own objectives, financial situation and needs.

Privacy and Licensing | Terms & Conditions | Referrals

  • Home
  • About
  • Why Choose Us
  • Mentor Program
  • Rave Reviews
  • Our Network
  • Blog
  • Shop
  • Contact Us
  • Log In

Copyright © The Trading Game. All Rights Reserved. | website designed by Papdan.com

Social Media: