The S&P 500 index soared 38% in 1995. This sharp increase, following four years of steady gains, made some of the smartest investors on Wall Street begin to grow wary of a bubble in the making.
Over the past few months, we studied what today’s most famous investors were saying during the years leading up to the dot-com bubble. We referred to investors’ letters to shareholders, online databases such as LexisNexis, and business books to collect their quotes, building a database of every piece of macro commentary we could find. We found that the investors we studied almost all perceived the market to be in a bubble, but almost all of them were too early in making the call. It’s easier to predict what will happen, it turns out, than when it will happen.
More here – Verdad
PS: I would posit that calling the top of a bubble is a stupid thing to do but a remarkable number of people who should know better still insist on attempting to do it.