Back in May, Thomas Lee, head of research at Fundstrat Global Advisors was predicting a rally to $25,000 by the end of the year. And despite things not playing quite in his favor — the cryptocurrency is currently trading below $3,400 — he’s sticking to his guns.
More here – Bloomberg
I do love it when advisers/analysts cling to a sinking ship – if you Google Thomas Lee you will find a never ending string of pronouncement about the stratospheric prices that crypto’s are going to whilst in the real world they auger themselves into the ground. I find it particularly uplifting when I am in drawdown to go back to articles like these and remind myself that I will never run out of people to take money off – it is very motivating.
There are a few take away points from this.
- Markets are never wrong – if Bitcoin and other crypto’s go to $1 then that is what they are worth.
- Your opinion is worthless – when in doubt see point 1
- The market owes you nothing.
- It gives an intriguing insight into the role of ego in poor trading performance. The only position you could have reasonably adopted for this market segment this year is to be short at every available opportunity since the overall trend was down.
- Traders are destroyed not by their intellect or lack of it but rather by their emotions. The difference between a good trader and a poor one id the distance between your ears. Markets dont exist for you to try and show how smart or stupid you are. They exist as an expression of your own psychology and the psychology of everyone else in the group. Fail to understand these ebbs and flows and you will never make any money.
- Good traders can admit that they are wrong – being wrong is part of the job and a failure to be able to do this means you will never be successful. I had a conversation once with a friend who was a criminal barrister and he said that prisons were full of people who believed they were innocent, even when caught in the act or film on high definition CCTV they still thought they were innocent. This is the power of self delusion – markets are full of people who think they are right.