What About Now?
All of the idiocy I have seen regarding when it might be time to buy prompted me to do a presentation for our Boardroomers but I thought the last slide in the presentation summed up a good part of my thinking.
The Anti Fake Equity Curve
The other day I posted this equity curve that had appeared on social media. This curve is clearly fake because it resembles the climb profile of a QANTAS 737 leaving Melbourne on its way to Sydney – that and the fact that it claims a 97% win rate. Real equity curves display volatility as wins…
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More Fun With Numbers
Whenever I see a report on the spread of coronavirus it is generally accompanied by a variation of the graphic below. Giant red circles encompassing massive areas of the globe. People see this and quite naturally freak out because it appears as if the world is engulfed in a runaway contagion. What is being shown…
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Fake Equity Curves
One of the things that social media has brought about is not only widespread dissemination of uneducated and frankly stupid opinions but also the spreading of outright lies. Below is a copy of an equity curve that appeared on one of my pages. Pay close attention to not only the curve which is the thing…
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The Zombie Apocalypse Is Upon Us….Apparently
According to the popular press, Australians are racing out to buy hand sanitiser and face masks to protect them from the coming apocalypse. I do wish someone would tell them that neither will help. However, as someone who is fascinated by group behaviour hence my belief that Charles P Kindleberger’s Manias, Panics and Crashes is…
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The Joys of Social Media and Bullshitting
I have mentioned before about the intriguing claims made by people on social media about their trading prowess. My favourite of late has to be the guy claiming a 10,000% return in his trading. So for shits and giggles, I wanted to see what a 10,000% return on various starting bases was and the result…
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Asset Managers’ BS — Decoded
A Translation Guide to Asset Manager-Speak Now is a good entry point = Sorry, we are in a drawdown We have a high Sharpe ratio = We don’t make much money We have never lost money = We have never made money We have a great backtest = We are going to lose money after…
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Context…….Again
Saw this snippet online this morning courtesy of The Age online edition. Pop quiz for the day – was the road toll in China for that day higher or lower than 97? Numbers without context or framing are meaningless.
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