The idea that something can be likely and not happen, or unlikely and still happen, is one of the world’s most important tricks.
But let me tell you about a common problem. I’m as guilty of it as anyone else.
It’s that most people understand probability, but few actually believe in it.
Most people get that certainties are rare, and the best you can do is make decisions where the odds are in your favor. They understand you can be smart and end up wrong, or dumb and end up right, because that’s how luck and risk work.
But almost no one actually uses probability in the real world, especially when judging others’ success.
Most of what people care about is, “Were you right or wrong?”
More here – Collaborative Fund