Uranium

One of the problems that traders fall victim to is the notion of myopia, and by that, I mean they often fail to take a step back and look at the broader picture. Usually relying simply on scanning markets manually in an often haphazard manner to find their next big trade.

I make a habit of regularly looking at base metals to try and get a sense of the big picture trends that might be emerging. My view of the world has told me that uranium has switched from bearish to neutral after bottoming out in March.

Although, to my eye, the broad downtrend is still intact, and this I feel is the most relevant point for traders.

I did a quick search of the top 10 ASX uranium stocks as measured by market cap and generated the following list.

A quick scan of these stocks shows that some had mirrored the bounce in uranium prices. However, this was not universal.

The modest bounce in the price of uranium does highlight the issue of how to handle such moves tactically, and the answer to that is the one that most traders fear. You wait.

You wait because the price seems to have simply generated a countertrend bounce and not a true reversal. For shits and giggles I put on my analysts hat and tried to generate a narrative for the bounce and came up with the following –

Uranium prices experienced a notable lift in the last quarter due to several interrelated factors. Global demand for nuclear energy is rising, driven by the need for clean, reliable power to support AI data centres and decarbonization goals. This surge in demand has outpaced supply, especially after Kazakhstan’s Kazatomprom reduced its 2025 production forecast by 17%.

Additionally, geopolitical tensions, including U.S. tariffs on Canadian uranium, have disrupted supply chains. In the U.S., executive orders aimed at fast-tracking nuclear reactor approvals and revitalising domestic uranium production have further influenced market dynamics. These factors combined have contributed to the upward pressure on uranium prices.

Any analysts following uranium stocks feel free to copy….

If we take a long-term view and look back to the sharp spike of 2021 and he more controlled move of 2023, we see that it was this sort of move that produced sharp gains in uranium stocks. This is why we wait for a sustained move up in the price of the underlying.

Always let someone else go first because pioneers are always the ones with arrows in their backs.