A Punters View Of The World
The AFR recently ran a piece on professional punter Kinglsley Bartholomew – unfortunately, as with most things, it sits behind a paywall. I have extracted several quotations that illustrate the overlap between processional punting and trading.
1. Loss Tolerance Is a Core Skill, Not a By-Product
Quote:
“I’m used to losing, and after doing it professionally for 25 years, you build up a certain resilience where you don’t worry about wins and losses.”
Why this applies to traders:
Trading, like professional betting, is a probabilistic game. Outcomes cluster around expectancy rather than intention. Traders who emotionally anchor to individual wins or losses sabotage their ability to execute the next signal cleanly. Bartholomew’s edge is not avoidance of losses, but emotional neutrality toward them—exactly the mindset required to trade systems with long-run positive expectancy.
2. Most Professionals Lose More Often Than They Win
Quote:
“Probably one in five bets of mine would win.”
Why this applies to traders:
This directly dismantles the novice trader’s obsession with win rate. Many robust trend-following and breakout systems achieve success rates below 50%. The edge lies in payoff asymmetry, not frequency. Traders who require validation through frequent wins will either interfere with exits or prematurely abandon profitable systems.
3. Rules and Structure Matter More Than Confidence
Quote:
“If you’re not sticking to rules, you’re not giving yourself the best chance to win. It’s about having discipline and structure.”
Why this applies to traders:
Confidence without structure is just disguised overconfidence. Bartholomew explicitly links profitability to rule adherence rather than intuition. In trading, this maps directly to predefined entries, position sizing, stops, and portfolio heat. Deviations don’t just increase risk—they erode the statistical edge the system was designed to exploit.
4. Edges Come From What the Crowd Is Mispricing
Quote:
“Poring over historical data and video footage often shows him what the public is undervaluing or missing.”
Why this applies to traders:
Markets reward differentiation, not consensus. Whether through volatility filters, trend persistence, or regime selection, traders must systematically identify where the crowd is wrong—or early. Bartholomew’s process mirrors quantitative trading research: study history, identify repeatable mispricings, and exploit them consistently rather than chasing narratives.
5. Mental Endurance Is the Final Separator
Quote:
“There are a lot of people out there smarter than me… but dealing with losses … people can’t handle the mentality of being a professional.”
Why this applies to traders:
Most traders fail not because of poor systems, but because they cannot psychologically survive drawdowns, boredom, or periods of underperformance. Bartholomew frames professionalism as the ability to “keep turning up” despite discomfort. In trading terms, this is the capacity to execute during drawdowns, trust-tested models, and resist the urge to constantly optimise after normal variance.
Closing Reflection
Bartholomew’s insights reinforce a truth traders often resist: profit is a consequence of process, not prediction. The disciplines of professional betting and systematic trading converge on the same foundations—loss acceptance, structural discipline, probabilistic thinking, and emotional endurance. Where most fail is not in finding an edge, but in surviving long enough to let it work.
