Last week the financial media went all weak in the waterworks over the slippage in MYX, apparently they came out an said that things were not as rosy as everyone had thought. Shit happens move on, nothing to see here for everyone except both the media and local investors who don’t seem to be able to spot a downtrend when they see one. The chart below is a daily chart of MYX with a bit of classical technical analysis which I must admit I probably don’t do enough of.
You can see a classic head and shoulders occurring at the tail end of a move down. it is this move down that is the most relevant part of the discussion and it seems to be a feature that many were oblivious to. I am not certain what most members of the media look at but it certainly isn’t a basic share price chart. However, as with all things the daily chart is a little bit more noisy and whilst it provides some context the context is limited. The chart below shows weekly data.
From 2013 there are four dominant moves as highlighted by simple 52 week high/lows. The climb out of 2013, the retracement of 2014 followed by a further climb in 2015 and a precipitous fall beginning in the last quarter of 2016. The stock has had two very strong upward moves that would have been profitable for anyone simply trade longer term highs and the slip at the end of 2016 should not have taken anyone by surprise. The hiccup last week is the very last candlestick on the chart. What is surprising is that those who were surprised by this move seem to have missed the point that the stock has already lost around 44% in six months.
My guess is that the surprise of everyone has come from telling but not listening and by that I mean the desire to force your own narrative onto the stock as opposed to simply listening to what the stock is telling you. The price action has obviously been down since last year and any acceleration in this based upon investors being disappointed that their narrative is not in line with the market shouldn’t be a surprise. The lesson is simple – listen don’t tell because the market cannot hear you.