I caught a piece in Bloomberg this morning that had FX traders lamenting the lack of volatility in FX markets this year and using that as an excuse for their lack of profitability. Upon seeing this I thought to myself that this sounds awfully familiar amd it does – it is the classic I dont…
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AQR recently updated its paper A Century of Evidence on Trend Following and whilst the updated hasn’t changed the basic conclusion of earlier versions it is worth unpacking some of the main point of the paper. The paper in its introduction makes an immensely important point that is lost on most – As an investment…
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Since I was playing around with YTD performance I thought I would isolate a handful of currency pairs and see how they did and as you can see from below they are a mixed bunch. Variations in performance are generally by themselves not that interesting, after all its a market and it depends upon variation…
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On October 7th 2016 the GBP suffered a minor aneurysm and dropped like a stone for a short period of time as seen below. The Bank of International Settlements had just released a report into possible reasons for the crash. You can download the full report here. The executive summary outlines a constellation of reasons…
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A question popped up in the Mentor Program that related to what to do when related instruments all gave the same signal, in this instance the culprit was various JPY related pairs. I had not looked at FX correlations for awhile so thought I might stick a few together and see if they told me…
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It is that time of the year when everyone involved in this business looks in the rear vision mirror and attempts to make sense of what happened. And of course to everyone involved everything is so obvious and predictable. What is worse is that they take this data and attempt to make some form of…
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