Chaos at the Top of the World
This remarkable photo of a traffic jam on Everest says it all – the accompanying article can be found here – GQ
Here’s The Price to be Paid for Listening to ‘Armageddonist’ Predictions
Dire predictions of imminent stock-market doom are a recurring feature since the 2008 financial crisis, and one fund industry executive has had enough. Michael Cembalest, the chairman of market and investment strategy for J.P. Morgan Asset Management, rounded up apocalyptic predictions from a range of commentators, including famed investor George Soros, bond-market giant Jeffrey Gundlach,…
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I Remember Another One
I am back on the theme of idiots in this business. At a conference overseas many years ago LB was talking to a group of female traders who mentioned that they were always losing money trading options. So she enquired a bit deeper. It turns out that the strategy they had been told to use…
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FFS Can Someone Tell Them How Stupid That Sounds
On a bit of a tear this morning with stupid things I have heard and been sent recently. I had heard someone say that 50%pa is a solid achievable return…..in what f^$ken universe is that realistic. Consider that table below in which I have taken a starting capital of $1,000,000 and compounded it at 50%…
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All That Is Wrong With This Industry
A few days ago I had someone reach out to me via LinkedIn wanting to make contact – the mere fact that someone wants to talk to you via LinkedIn should have actually given it away. Anyway a day later I get the email below which I offer with only one comment. This person is…
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How Economists’ Faith in Markets Broke America
A little more than a generation ago, a stealthy revolution swept America. It was a dual changing of the guard: Two tribes, two attitudes, two approaches to a good society were simultaneously displaced by upstart rivals. In the world of business, the manufacturing bosses gave way to Wall Street dealmakers, bent on breaking up their…
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What Economists Have Gotten Wrong for Decades
In a House hearing on monetary policy last week, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell made a telling confession in response to a question from Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY). The topic was the so-called natural rate of unemployment: the idea, believed by many economists and policymakers, that there is a rate at which unemployment could get so low…
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Astrology Beliefs among Undergraduate Students
A survey of the science knowledge and attitudes toward science of nearly 10000 undergraduates at a large public university over a 20-year period included several questions addressing student beliefs in astrology and other forms of pseudoscience. The results from our data reveal that a large majority of students (78%) considered astrology “very” or “sort of”…
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Why do we bother with stock market forecasts?
“Forecasting: the attempt to predict the unknowable by measuring the irrelevant; this task employs most people on Wall Street.” (Brilliant description – wish I had thought of it) The words of Jason Zweig, author of the Devil’s Financial Dictionary, are particularly apt at this time of year. We hear a lot from financial forecasters every…
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