1. Intelligence increases the ability to fool yourself with elaborate stories about why something happened. Average people can often learn faster than the superintelligent, because the superintelligent try to cram the real world into the theories they’ve been taught, while average folks are better at accepting the real world at face value. Here’s the thing:…
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Whilst I was recently in Toronto I noted that there was a degree of hand wringing about the current state of the property market in Canada and the resultant increase in household debt that had accompanied this. Curious about where we stood I looked up the league table of household debt as a function of…
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In decision making the quality of any decision you make is bounded by a series of strictures, the time you have to make the decision, the quality of the information you receive and your cognitive abilities to process the information you receive. Decision making can never be perfect because no collection of these inputs will…
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I noticed during the Olympics that an industry superannuation fund known as REST were trying to convince me how good they are. The catch cry of the ad is that investing is a marathon and not a sprint – you wont get any argument here on that point. Too many people believe that investing irrespective of…
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The most scenic way to find truth on the internet is to drive north of Los Angeles on the Pacific Coast Highway, blue ocean foaming to the left, sunlit hills cresting to the right, until Malibu Canyon Road, where you take a sharp right and wind for a few miles through the oak-lined knolls and…
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The chart below has been doing the rounds today. It shows the S&P 500 versus analysts expectations for the index, as you can see analysts are a wildly optimistic bunch. Source – Bloomberg The reasons this has caused so much angst is that it now seems to portray Wall Street as being bearish because the…
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The numbers in this are staggering as are the number of missed opportunities. More here – Visual Capitalist.
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Other HL Menckens often paraphrased quote that nobody went broke underestimating the intelligence of the general public. The real lesson from such things lies in what they tell us about investors and group behaviour. What initially piqued my interest in this little phenomena was the sense of permanence people attach to events that are transient.…
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